Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital.

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.

Causes and consequences of child growth faltering in low-resource settings.

Growth faltering in children (low length for age or low weight for length) during the first 1,000 days of life (from conception to 2 years of age) influences short-term and long-term health and survival1,2. Interventions such as nutritional supplementation during pregnancy and the postnatal period could help prevent growth faltering, but programmatic action has been insufficient to eliminate the high burden of stunting and wasting in low- and middle-income countries. Identification of age windows and population subgroups on which to focus will benefit future preventive efforts. Here we use a population intervention effects analysis of 33 longitudinal cohorts (83,671 children, 662,763 measurements) and 30 separate exposures to show that improving maternal anthropometry and child condition at birth accounted for population increases in length-for-age z-scores of up to 0.40 and weight-for-length z-scores of up to 0.15 by 24 months of age. Boys had consistently higher risk of all forms of growth faltering than girls. Early postnatal growth faltering predisposed children to subsequent and persistent growth faltering. Children with multiple growth deficits exhibited higher mortality rates from birth to 2 years of age than children without growth deficits (hazard ratios 1.9 to 8.7). The importance of prenatal causes and severe consequences for children who experienced early growth faltering support a focus on pre-conception and pregnancy as a key opportunity for new preventive interventions.

Aspirin for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 51 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Aspirin is an effective and low-cost option for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and improving mortality rates among individuals with established CVD. To guide efforts to mitigate the global CVD burden, there is a need to understand current levels of aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD. Objective: To report and evaluate aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis using pooled, individual participant data from nationally representative health surveys conducted between 2013 and 2020 in 51 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Included surveys contained data on self-reported history of CVD and aspirin use. The sample of participants included nonpregnant adults aged 40 to 69 years. Exposures: Countries' per capita income levels and world region; individuals' socioeconomic demographics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported use of aspirin for secondary prevention of CVD. Results: The overall pooled sample included 124 505 individuals. The median age was 52 (IQR, 45-59) years, and 50.5% (95% CI, 49.9%-51.1%) were women. A total of 10 589 individuals had a self-reported history of CVD (8.1% [95% CI, 7.6%-8.6%]). Among individuals with a history of CVD, aspirin use for secondary prevention in the overall pooled sample was 40.3% (95% CI, 37.6%-43.0%). By income group, estimates were 16.6% (95% CI, 12.4%-21.9%) in low-income countries, 24.5% (95% CI, 20.8%-28.6%) in lower-middle-income countries, 51.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-54.0%) in upper-middle-income countries, and 65.0% (95% CI, 59.1%-70.4%) in high-income countries. Conclusion and Relevance: Worldwide, aspirin is underused in secondary prevention, particularly in low-income countries. National health policies and health systems must develop, implement, and evaluate strategies to promote aspirin therapy.

Exploring the nonlinear relationship among financial development, human capital and CO2 emissions: a comparative study of South and East Asian emerging economies.

Despite worldwide commitments to reduce fossil fuel consumption in favour of alternative energies, several countries still rely on carbon-intensive sources to meet their energy demands. The previous studies show inconsistent results on the association between financial development and CO2 emissions. As a result, the impact of financial development, human capital, economic growth and energy efficiency on CO2 emission is evaluated here. Empirical research on a panel of 13 South and East Asian (SEA) nations between 1995 and 2021 using the CS-ARDL. Estimates from the empirical analysis considering energy efficiency, human capital, economic growth and overall energy use yield different findings. Financial development has a negative effect on CO2 emission, while economic growth positively impacts CO2 emission. The data also show that improving human capital and energy efficiency has a positive, though statistically insignificant, impact on CO2 emission. According to the causes and effects analysis, CO2 emission will be influenced by policies that aim to improve financial development, human capital, and energy efficiency, but not vice versa. Policy considerations that can be implemented in light of these findings and sustainable development goals can be accomplished by promoting financial resources and human capital.

Burn Care in Low-Resource and Austere Settings.

More than 95% of the 11 million burns that occur annually happen in low-resource settings, and 70% of those occur among children. Although some low- and middle-income countries have well-organized emergency care systems, many have not prioritized care for the injured and experience unsatisfactory outcomes after burn injury. This chapter outlines key considerations for burn care in low-resource settings.

Global Variations in Heart Failure Etiology, Management, and Outcomes.

Importance: Most epidemiological studies of heart failure (HF) have been conducted in high-income countries with limited comparable data from middle- or low-income countries. Objective: To examine differences in HF etiology, treatment, and outcomes between groups of countries at different levels of economic development. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multinational HF registry of 23 341 participants in 40 high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries, followed up for a median period of 2.0 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: HF cause, HF medication use, hospitalization, and death. Results: Mean (SD) age of participants was 63.1 (14.9) years, and 9119 (39.1%) were female. The most common cause of HF was ischemic heart disease (38.1%) followed by hypertension (20.2%). The proportion of participants with HF with reduced ejection fraction taking the combination of a ß-blocker, renin-angiotensin system inhibitor, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist was highest in upper-middle-income (61.9%) and high-income countries (51.1%), and it was lowest in low-income (45.7%) and lower-middle-income countries (39.5%) (P < .001). The age- and sex- standardized mortality rate per 100 person-years was lowest in high-income countries (7.8 [95% CI, 7.5-8.2]), 9.3 (95% CI, 8.8-9.9) in upper-middle-income countries, 15.7 (95% CI, 15.0-16.4) in lower-middle-income countries, and it was highest in low-income countries (19.1 [95% CI, 17.6-20.7]). Hospitalization rates were more frequent than death rates in high-income countries (ratio = 3.8) and in upper-middle-income countries (ratio = 2.4), similar in lower-middle-income countries (ratio = 1.1), and less frequent in low-income countries (ratio = 0.6). The 30-day case-fatality rate after first hospital admission was lowest in high-income countries (6.7%), followed by upper-middle-income countries (9.7%), then lower-middle-income countries (21.1%), and highest in low-income countries (31.6%). The proportional risk of death within 30 days of a first hospital admission was 3- to 5-fold higher in lower-middle-income countries and low-income countries compared with high-income countries after adjusting for patient characteristics and use of long-term HF therapies. Conclusions and Relevance: This study of HF patients from 40 different countries and derived from 4 different economic levels demonstrated differences in HF etiologies, management, and outcomes. These data may be useful in planning approaches to improve HF prevention and treatment globally.

The effects of cash transfers on adult and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

Poverty is an important social determinant of health that is associated with increased risk of death1-5. Cash transfer programmes provide non-contributory monetary transfers to individuals or households, with or without behavioural conditions such as children's school attendance6,7. Over recent decades, cash transfer programmes have emerged as central components of poverty reduction strategies of many governments in low- and middle-income countries6,7. The effects of these programmes on adult and child mortality rates remains an important gap in the literature, however, with existing evidence limited to a few specific conditional cash transfer programmes, primarily in Latin America8-14. Here we evaluated the effects of large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes on all-cause adult and child mortality using individual-level longitudinal mortality datasets from many low- and middle-income countries. We found that cash transfer programmes were associated with significant reductions in mortality among children under five years of age and women. Secondary heterogeneity analyses suggested similar effects for conditional and unconditional programmes, and larger effects for programmes that covered a larger share of the population and provided larger transfer amounts, and in countries with lower health expenditures, lower baseline life expectancy, and higher perceived regulatory quality. Our findings support the use of anti-poverty programmes such as cash transfers, which many countries have introduced or expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic, to improve population health.

Cost-effectiveness Thresholds Used by Study Authors, 1990-2021.

This study examines what study authors consider to be appropriate cost-effectiveness analysis thresholds as reflected in the referenced thresholds in their published cost-effectiveness analyses.

Interventions addressing maternal and child health among the urban poor and homeless: an overview of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Inequalities in access to and utilization of maternal and child health (MCH) care are hampering progress on the path to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. In a number of Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) population subgroups at disproportionate risk of being left behind are the urban poor. Within this neglected group is the further neglected group of the homeless. Concomitantly, a number of interventions from the antenatal period onward have been piloted, tested, and scaled in these contexts. We carried out an overview of systematic reviews (SRs) to characterize the evidence around maternal and child health interventions relevant to urban poor homeless populations in LMICs. METHODS: We searched Medline, Cochrane Library, Health Systems Evidence and EBSCOhost databases for SRs published between January 2009 and 2020 (with an updated search through November 2021). Our population of interest was women or children from urban poor settings in LMICs; interventions and outcomes corresponded with the World Health Organization's (WHO) guidance document. Each SR was assessed by two reviewers using established standard critical appraisal checklists. The overview was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42021229107). RESULTS: In a sample of 33 high quality SRs, we found no direct relevant evidence for pregnant and lactating homeless women (and children) in the reviewed literature. There was a lack of emphasis on evidence related to family planning, safe abortion care, and postpartum care of mothers. There was mixed quality evidence that the range of nutritional interventions had little, unclear or no effect on several child mortality and development outcomes. Interventions related to water, sanitation, and hygiene, ensuring acceptability of community health services and health promotion type programs could be regarded as beneficial, although location seemed to matter. Importantly, the risk of bias reporting in different reviews did not match, suggesting that greater attention to rigour in their conduct is needed. CONCLUSION: The generalizability of existing systematic reviews to our population of interest was poor. There is a clear need for rigorous primary research on MCH interventions among urban poor, and particularly homeless populations in LMICs, as it is as yet unclear whether the same, augmented, or altogether different interventions would be required.

Contraceptive dynamics among women with disabilities in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Contraceptive dynamics is the use of contraception, unmet need, discontinuation, and/or switching of contraception. Women with disabilities (WWDs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face a common problem: a low prevalence of contraceptive usage and a high unmet need. Even though certain studies have been conducted in high-income countries, research is scarce on the degree of contraceptive method mix, unmet needs, contraception discontinuation, and switching among WWDs in LMICs. As a result, the scoping review's goal is to investigate, map available evidence, and identify knowledge gaps on contraceptive dynamics within LMICs WWDs. METHODS: The scoping review is guided by the six-stage Arksey and O'Malley methodology framework. Published articles will be retrieved from databases such as PubMed (MEDLINE), the Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Global Health. Grey literature databases will be searched using electronic search engines such as Google Scholar, Google, OpenGrey, and Worldcat. In addition, a manual search of reference lists from recognized studies will be conducted, as well as a hand search of the literature. Any type of study design (e.g., randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies, prospective and retrospective cohort studies, case-control or nested case-control studies, qualitative, cross-sectional studies) will be included in this scoping review. There will be no restrictions on publication year. Two independent reviewers will screen relevant publications, and data will be charted accordingly. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist and reporting guidelines will be used to report all parts of the protocol and scoping review. DISCUSSION: When compared to non-disabled women, WWDs had a lower prevalence of contraceptive usage and a higher unmet need in LMICs. Despite these facts, they are the most marginalized people on the planet. This is, therefore, critical to map available evidence and identify knowledge gaps on contraceptive dynamics. As a result, the findings of this scoping review will be significant in terms of the contraceptive dynamic among WWDs in LMICs. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Open Science Framework (OSF), with registration number; DOI/10.17605/OSF.IO/XCKPT.

Breech delivery in low-income settings: A systematic review of perinatal and maternal outcomes in vaginal versus cesarean breech deliveries.

Most studies comparing vaginal breech delivery (VBD) with cesarean breech delivery (CBD) have been conducted in high-income settings. It is uncertain whether these results are applicable in a low-income setting. To assess the neonatal and maternal mortality and morbidity for singleton VBD compared to CBD in low- and lower-middle-income settings,the PubMed database was searched from January 1, 2000, to January 23, 2020 (updated April 21, 2021). Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs comparing singleton VBD with singleton CBD in low- and lower-middle-income settings reporting infant mortality were selected. Two authors independently assessed papers for eligibility and risk of bias. The primary outcome was relative risk of perinatal mortality. Meta-analysis was conducted on applicable outcomes. Eight studies (one RCT, seven observational) (12 510 deliveries) were included. VBD increased perinatal mortality (relative risk [RR] 2.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.82-3.91; one RCT, five observational studies, 3289 women) and risk of 5-minute Apgar score below 7 (RR 3.91, 95% CI 1.90-8.04; three observational studies, 430 women) compared to CBD. There was a higher risk of hospitalization and postpartum bleeding in CBD. Most of the studies were deemed to have moderate or serious risk of bias. CBD decreases risk of perinatal mortality but increases risk of bleeding and hospitalization.